Global shipping markets are currently stuck in a state of perpetual crisis.
This situation clearly cemented itself over the past six years, and the current geopolitical turmoil is essentially guaranteed to keep the uncertainty for global supply chains at a high level for years to come.
The underlying mechanism here is that geopolitical forces in the world have been shifting like tectonic plates, triggering an earthquake of sorts whose ripples suddenly reactivate old, latent rifts. We saw similar local ripples and turmoil during the last great geopolitical re-alignment in the decades immediately following the end of the Cold War, when 29 new independent countries emerged, 15 from the Soviet Union and 14 elsewhere. More recent examples include the sudden outbreak of war between Thailand and Cambodia in 2025, which disrupted the overland cargo flows, as well as the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. What’s more, partially in response to – and partially contributing to – this geopolitical turmoil, global supply chains are rapidly migrating to India, the Middle East and Africa.
Both shippers and shipping lines should view this situation of having to constantly navigate uncertainty not as temporary, but as the new normal. But how does one plan for – and operate under – such volatile and unpredictable circumstances?
In the “old days,” the key word was resilience. If something unforeseen arose, alternative routes could be used to keep cargo flowing to its destination. But the problem with the resilience perspective is that it presupposes two things: first, that there is an alternative route and, second, that it won’t be disrupted. Since such stability is unfortunately no longer a given, one must focus instead on agility and adaptability.
In this case, agility means having the ability to make operational decisions very rapidly even in the face of uncertainty. When a conflict erupts, once the initial decisions about safety and security have been made, it becomes a matter of quickly mapping out not just which cargo is directly impacted, but also what the subsequent ripple effects will be.
Adaptability, on the other hand, is about answering a wide range of questions about the cargo that was supposed to move into or through the conflict area. This includes – but is far from being limited to – asking: What should happen with this cargo? If it is not loaded as planned, what will the knock-on effects be in terms of local congestion issues? How will this impact empty container repositioning, potentially creating shortages two, three or even four months down the road? And so on.
of global merchandise trade moves by sea, making shipping a critical backbone of the world economy.
Source: UN trade & development (UNCTAD)
average annual growth is expected for seaborne trade between 2026 and 2030, even as global shipping continues to face uncertainty and volatility.
Source: UN trade & development (UNCTAD)
more container-ship capacity was needed between mid-December 2023 and June 2024due to longer routes caused by diversions and disruptions.
Source: UN trade & development (UNCTAD)
These days, we luckily have a range of tools, such as artificial intelligence, that can help us analyze these complex ripple effects better and gain a clearer overview of the impact of the operational decisions being made. Using the results of these tools, one can then weigh the pros and cons of potential responses, asking, for example, whether it would be better to alleviate short-term local problems in a potentially disruptive way or to minimize longer-term negative ripple effects. Such decisions allow a shipping line to navigate not just the current but also the future disruptive crisis in the best way possible.
Of course, there is another party that feels the impacts of any disruptive crisis: customers. And even though shipping lines deserve no blame for the crisis, their customers will be demanding answers from them on how their cargo will be handled.
Making operational decisions based on ripple-effect analysis helps here, too, as it also facilities better customer engagement during times of crisis. Specifically, it allows the carrier’s Customer Service team to explain to customers things like why certain operational decisions are made and why their cargo might not be moving as they would expect. Most importantly, the team can convey a clear impression that there is an underlying – and solid – plan in place that will not only put the immediate “fire” out but also prevent it from reigniting and perhaps even escalating at a later point.
Given that sudden crisis has become the new norm, these two factors – ripple-effect analysis and the ability to successfully communicate decisions based on it to customers – will become much more than advantages. Instead, they will emerge as core – and indispensable – competitive skills.
Lars Jensen
Shipping Analyst
About the author
Photos by: Hapag-Lloyd AG
Text by: Lars Jensen
